Corona Virus Breaks Supply Chains

Corona Virus Breaks JIT Supply Chains

What do we really know about the corona virus, except for what the governments want us to know?

Brave citizen journalists are getting some information and videos out of the virus epicentre in Wuhan and the situation seems far worse than the official narrative.

So like a good Boy Scout, be prepared for the worst, hope for the best and stay safe.

The best way to protect yourself is to self-quarantine, stay away from crowds and big cities, wash your hands regularly, wear a N95 face mask in public, get physically and mentally fit, and stock up on essential food, water, medications and supplies.

Just in Time Supply Chains

I started connecting the dots. If over 400 million Chinese (more than the entire population of the USA) are under quarantine at home, in a government camp or a hospital, no one is working, right?

That means no truck drivers delivering food to stores, crane drivers loading or unloading ships, no office workers signing off contracts, operating phones etc. etc. etc. Basically nothing is getting done. The system has or is breaking down.

As we live in an age of Just in Time (JIT) supply chains and are used to going to the store, and filling our baskets with things off the full shelves, what’s going to happen next time you go to the store? If it’s open, will the shelves have anything on them? If they are empty, when will they be stocked again?

Fruit Exports from Thailand to China

Living in Trat province, the fruit basket of Thailand, I hear the ongoing situation in China has farmers worried here too. Usually about this time of year, contracts would have been signed off for durian and other fruit crops. Thailand is the biggest exporter of fruits to China by value and have a market share of 21%.

The tourist and hospitality industries are also crucial to the Thai economy. Hotel cancellations are rippling across the nations islands and resorts which has already suffered a weak ‘high season’ due to the high Thai Baht on international currency exchanges. Braces yourself for more disruption!

Food Security

A few days ago, Singapore raised its national disease response level to orange (the 2^nd highest level) and a friend of mine have reported panic buying and the unavailability of certain foodstuff.

I’ve noted in the last year or two that Singapore has been making some investments into vertical gardens, but the truth of the matter is, they have next to no food security with 90% of their food needs being imported.

I love Singapore and travel there many times a year for business and pleasure. But what would happen if Singapore followed China’s example and locked the place down to contain the corona virus? I personally wouldn’t want to be there with the 5.6 million people, on a small island with supply chains that have ceased up.

Medication

We all know the US is currently in an opioid crises. If the 2019 nCov takes a hold there or even if the Chinese can’t ship their pharmaceuticals to the US, who are over dependent on them, what will happen to their society that is already fractured with bi-partisan politics, red elephant v blue ass or what ever it is?

Always Look on the Bright Side of Life

If your young fit and healthy and take the necessary precautions, you probably have nothing to fear from contracting the corona virus. I’ve heard people say ‘yeah, more people die in road accidents in Thailand’ and they would be right, but we don’t know the full extent of this pandemic yet and how it plays out.

One thing we do know is, if you get the virus or not, the fractured JIT supply chains will have a deep economic impact in more ways than one as I’ve outlined above. It’s could even tip the world into a recession.

It’s not the zombie apocalypse (yet), so don’t panic, stay vigilant and be prepared. When it’s all over, will you send someone into the woods and tell me it’s safe to come out! 555

Now, go wash your hands. The device you used to read this on is filthy!

Corona Virus Breaks Supply Chains